But anyone who ever had heart, they wouldn't turn around and break it. "Sweet Jane" - Lou Reed
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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90–47 on winners spread MAE 10.4 137 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Dayton @ George Washington +4.7 151.7 69% 68–66 ✗
Rider @ Iona +12.1 141.6 89% 58–80 ✓
Brown @ Columbia +6.8 138.4 76% 62–80 ✓
Siena @ Fairfield +0.1 140.7 52% 58–72 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Sacred Heart +1.6 143.6 59% 69–77 ✓
Merrimack @ Canisius -8.9 127.8 15% 62–67 ✗
Manhattan @ Saint Peter's +8.9 145.3 80% 65–75 ✓
Harvard @ Princeton -2.7 132.2 35% 58–56 ✓
Dartmouth @ Pennsylvania +5.7 146.3 76% 71–80 ✓
UL Monroe @ Troy +16.5 154.7 90% 65–80 ✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia State -0.7 144.4 48% 81–73 ✓
Michigan @ Illinois +0.7 160.4 44% 84–70 ✗
Akron @ Kent State -2.8 162.8 39% 92–70 ✓
App State @ Texas State -0.6 136.8 51% 57–60 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ James Madison +4.3 142.6 68% 69–68 ✗
Southern Miss @ South Alabama +5.7 145.8 79% 68–55 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Marshall +8.8 161.2 85% 99–82 ✗
Louisiana @ Arkansas State +12.3 141.6 88% 58–81 ✓
Colorado @ Houston +13.0 139.6 88% 62–102 ✓
Virginia @ Duke +12.8 143.2 86% 51–77 ✓
Seton Hall @ UConn +13.0 131.5 88% 67–71 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Rhode Island +3.0 134.9 63% 61–55 ✗
Iowa @ Penn State -9.3 140.5 21% 69–71 ✗
NC State @ Notre Dame -5.2 152.6 34% 90–96 ✗
Florida State @ Georgia Tech -4.8 154.6 33% 80–71 ✓
Boston University @ American University +2.7 146.1 53% 68–65 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Holy Cross +2.4 145.9 66% 76–62 ✗
Fordham @ VCU +12.6 139.1 87% 63–82 ✓
Army @ Lafayette +4.1 143.5 68% 77–83 ✓
Cleveland State @ Robert Morris +12.2 154.8 89% 64–83 ✓
Chicago State @ Wagner +4.7 135.4 73% 61–80 ✓
Saint Francis @ Central Connecticut +10.0 149.1 86% 64–69 ✓
Le Moyne @ New Haven -0.6 130.5 46% 59–66 ✗
Missouri @ Mississippi State +0.9 153.8 54% 88–64 ✗
New Mexico State @ Middle Tennessee +3.7 145.6 70% 85–86 ✓
UMBC @ UMass Lowell -1.2 143.2 37% 84–60 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Long Island University +10.6 138.4 86% 60–74 ✓
Georgetown @ Xavier +3.5 150.8 68% 84–91 ✓
Louisville @ Clemson -2.0 146.7 47% 75–80 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ IU Indianapolis -1.5 160.4 52% 87–81 ✓
Bucknell @ Lehigh +6.0 141.5 78% 79–89 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ George Mason +5.3 142.4 72% 58–71 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Cincinnati +6.8 150.1 76% 68–91 ✓
Oregon @ Northwestern +5.4 141.9 72% 62–63 ✓
UCLA @ Minnesota -0.8 133.1 50% 73–78 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ South Carolina Upstate +12.2 147.1 87% 61–71 ✓
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville +3.0 144.5 65% 92–75 ✗
San Diego State @ New Mexico +3.9 147.3 72% 76–81 ✓
South Dakota State @ South Dakota -2.2 149.7 43% 70–75 ✗
Youngstown State @ Green Bay +1.6 143.7 60% 63–85 ✓
Massachusetts @ Bowling Green +3.7 151.7 74% 62–81 ✓
Central Michigan @ Buffalo +5.9 149.3 75% 75–70 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Stonehill -1.6 132.3 33% 75–72 ✓
New Hampshire @ UAlbany +4.1 136.6 65% 61–84 ✓
Maine @ Binghamton -1.1 129.6 36% 67–74 ✗
William & Mary @ North Carolina A&T -4.5 156.4 35% 91–88 ✓
Campbell @ Towson +4.0 134.6 66% 67–71 ✓
The Citadel @ Wofford +11.3 144.7 87% 93–90 ✗
VMI @ Chattanooga +11.1 149.7 87% 79–86 ✓
Queens University @ Central Arkansas +4.8 160.9 75% 79–84 ✓
North Alabama @ West Georgia +5.1 145.7 70% 63–75 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Stetson -2.4 151.3 42% 63–78 ✗
Austin Peay @ Bellarmine -4.9 152.1 34% 97–111 ✗
Tennessee State @ UT Martin +3.4 140.0 67% 67–42 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky +0.8 152.9 56% 77–91 ✓
Boston College @ Miami +14.3 143.8 88% 54–76 ✓
Radford @ Longwood -0.1 154.8 51% 74–90 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Oakland +6.4 159.4 75% 95–89 ✗
Elon @ Monmouth +3.4 150.2 69% 57–73 ✓
Sacramento State @ Montana State +10.1 152.0 86% 61–82 ✓
Florida International @ Louisiana Tech +1.1 141.9 60% 84–76 ✗
UTEP @ Western Kentucky +10.3 142.5 84% 65–97 ✓
Utah @ Arizona State +6.3 147.5 74% 60–73 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Southern +0.1 151.4 46% 82–79 ✗
South Carolina @ Georgia +12.8 161.5 88% 68–87 ✓
Texas Tech @ Iowa State +6.3 145.5 72% 82–73 ✗
Nebraska @ USC -6.0 145.3 26% 82–67 ✓
Wisconsin @ Washington +1.4 149.1 60% 90–73 ✗
Air Force @ Wyoming +22.1 143.7 91% 62–66 ✓
Valparaiso @ Evansville -6.3 139.1 23% 79–80 ✗
San Diego @ Portland +2.6 146.5 67% 74–87 ✓
Howard @ Morgan State -8.7 149.4 20% 84–59 ✓
Richmond @ Loyola Chicago -7.2 144.9 27% 66–69 ✗
Presbyterian @ Winthrop +10.3 144.1 85% 70–74 ✓
Pittsburgh @ California +8.1 142.3 81% 72–56 ✗
Colgate @ Navy +8.1 141.4 82% 69–85 ✓
Toledo @ Ohio +0.4 154.3 54% 79–67 ✗
NJIT @ Bryant -1.8 134.7 36% 52–69 ✗
Northeastern @ Hampton +2.6 144.3 65% 65–76 ✓
Portland State @ Montana +0.6 141.3 52% 68–74 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Idaho +2.3 152.1 60% 76–67 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington +10.0 146.7 86% 57–88 ✓
Lipscomb @ Eastern Kentucky -2.5 154.7 42% 80–77 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Little Rock +5.0 137.2 69% 70–89 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Utah Valley +13.6 137.1 86% 67–74 ✓
Kansas @ Arizona +9.9 146.4 81% 61–84 ✓
Texas @ Texas A&M +3.5 162.8 69% 76–70 ✗
North Carolina Central @ Delaware State -0.3 131.6 38% 74–60 ✓
South Carolina State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +5.9 133.0 77% 57–69 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Mercer +0.5 149.5 50% 76–82 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Houston Christian -8.4 133.4 20% 77–56 ✓
Lindenwood @ Western Illinois -8.5 134.0 18% 91–69 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville +5.8 127.5 72% 50–77 ✓
Ball State @ Northern Illinois +0.7 130.1 49% 79–43 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Nicholls +4.7 140.0 66% 60–68 ✓
Norfolk State @ Coppin State -7.6 135.8 18% 75–69 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southeast Missouri State +6.6 135.5 75% 73–89 ✓
Colorado State @ San José State -6.4 145.3 28% 85–73 ✓
Lamar @ Incarnate Word +0.3 137.2 48% 60–72 ✓
Delaware @ Kennesaw State +8.2 148.4 81% 82–90 ✓
North Dakota @ North Dakota State +13.6 152.2 88% 63–96 ✓
BYU @ West Virginia -3.9 139.5 35% 71–79 ✗
Alcorn State @ Prairie View A&M +4.2 150.5 72% 51–72 ✓
Providence @ Creighton +2.6 163.5 69% 79–76 ✗
Furman @ Western Carolina +0.7 145.5 57% 67–86 ✓
East Texas A&M @ UT Rio Grande Valley +12.2 143.3 87% 55–63 ✓
Missouri State @ Sam Houston +11.6 149.3 84% 81–86 ✓
Jackson State @ Texas Southern +6.9 154.2 81% 57–82 ✓
Alabama State @ Alabama A&M +2.6 140.7 57% 89–88 ✗
Syracuse @ Wake Forest +4.5 149.9 75% 83–88 ✓
Florida A&M @ Grambling +3.8 137.2 65% 66–59 ✗
San Francisco @ Pacific +5.1 140.2 77% 72–61 ✗
Dartmouth @ Princeton +0.5 136.3 51% 61–82 ✓
SMU @ Stanford -0.5 151.7 49% 75–95 ✗
Brown @ Cornell +8.9 150.9 81% 80–86 ✓
Yale @ Columbia -4.4 146.3 34% 60–54 ✓
Harvard @ Pennsylvania +1.9 133.6 62% 61–64 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Samford +7.7 155.5 82% 78–87 ✓
McNeese @ New Orleans -5.9 145.3 26% 66–63 ✓
Weber State @ Idaho State -0.2 152.8 46% 83–73 ✓
Oklahoma @ LSU +3.8 157.6 74% 83–67 ✗
Jacksonville @ North Florida -0.3 147.5 43% 85–61 ✓
Liberty @ Jacksonville State -3.0 140.7 43% 81–78 ✓
Alabama @ Tennessee +3.9 162.4 68% 71–69 ✗
TCU @ Kansas State -2.3 151.8 39% 77–68 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +13.0 147.0 88% 70–69 ✗
Northwestern State @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +6.2 133.0 72% 59–71 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.