Really don't mind if you sit this one out. "Thick as a Brick" - Jethro Tull
Mid-American Conference · NIU Convocation Center · February 28, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread NIU -1.5 Away covered
O/U 133.5 Under
Money NIU -130 / BALL +110
Model Predictions
Spread Total NIU win
Actual BALL +36 122 Lost
Massey NIU -2.3 (-38.3)
Massey Totals 128.6 (-6.6)
Bradley-Terry 69%
Weighted B-T 71%
Efficiency Plus ML NIU -1.3 (-37.3) 131.4 (-9.4) 54%
Baseline Tuned ML NIU -1.3 (-37.3) 130.7 (-8.7) 52%
Baseline ML NIU -0.7 (-36.7) 130.1 (-8.1) 49%
Baseline Plus ML NIU -0.1 (-36.1) 132.6 (-10.6) 48%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 24, 2026 BALL 5853 NIU
Feb 15, 2025 BALL 8983 NIU
Jan 25, 2025 NIU 7666 BALL
Feb 21, 2024 BALL 7063 NIU
Jan 27, 2024 BALL 8171 NIU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NIU BALL
Overall 9-21 12-19
Conference 4-14 7-11
Home 6-7 7-7
Away 3-14 4-11
Neutral 0-0 1-1
Last 5 1-4 1-4
Streak L5 W4
Avg Pts For 66.3 66.1
Avg Pts Against 78.9 71.4
Massey -10.5 (#315) -9.8 (#309)
Bradley-Terry -1.37 (#287) -1.66 (#316)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.07 (#314) -2.36 (#325)
RPI 0.439 (#296) 0.408 (#346)
Shooting & Four Factors NIU BALL
FG% 41.2% 39.6%
3PT% 31.9% 30.4%
REB / G 33.6 31.3
OREB / G 11.4 10.1
AST / TO 0.80 1.07
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.4% 45.7%
TOV% 22.0% 16.5%
ORB% 32.0% 27.4%
FT Rate 24.4% 23.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.4% 53.5%
Opp TOV% 16.7% 18.9%
DRB% 70.0% 67.6%
Opp FT Rate 28.4% 24.4%

Game Analysis

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