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Adjusted Efficiency (classic)
Classical prediction model built from the adjusted per-possession efficiency ratings (AdjO/AdjD/Tempo) — expected margin, total, and win probability follow directly from the two teams' adjusted efficiencies and tempos, with no training step.
Accuracy all seasons, every FINAL game scored on leakage-free pre-game predictions
| Metric | Adjusted Efficiency (classic) | Book Closing Line |
|---|---|---|
| Spread MAE (n=31,043) | 9.39 | 8.83 |
| Winner % | 70.7% | 72.8% |
| Total MAE (n=31,043) | 13.74 | 13.02 |
| Log loss | 0.5629 | 0.5251 |
| Brier | 0.1903 | 0.1771 |
Head-to-head on identical games: model spread MAE 9.39 vs book 8.79 over 30,881 games; taking the model against the closing spread hits 50.0% (52.4% is breakeven at −110). Full breakdowns on Compare Models. Not betting advice.