Accuracy 2026 — every FINAL game scored on leakage-free pre-game predictions
| Metric | Model 3 | Book Closing Line |
|---|---|---|
| Spread MAE (n=5,531) | 9.41 | 8.92 |
| Winner % | 70.9% | 72.7% |
| Total MAE (n=5,531) | 14.27 | 13.37 |
| Log loss | 0.5553 | 0.5129 |
| Brier | 0.1885 | 0.1732 |
Head-to-head on identical games: model spread MAE 9.41 vs book 8.89 over 5,487 games; taking the model against the closing spread hits 50.3% (52.4% is breakeven at −110). Full breakdowns on Compare Models. Not betting advice.
What it knows — the 27 inputs per game
Form & schedule (15)
home_win_pct_l5, home_avg_margin_l5, home_avg_total_l5, home_margin_stddev_l5, away_win_pct_l5, away_avg_margin_l5, away_avg_total_l5, away_margin_stddev_l5, home_games_played, away_games_played, home_days_rest, away_days_rest, season_week, is_neutral_site, is_conference_game
Ratings (12)
massey_beta_home, massey_beta_away, massey_beta_diff, massey_gamma_home, massey_gamma_away, massey_gamma_sum, bt_theta_home, bt_theta_away, bt_logodds, bt_theta_weighted_home, bt_theta_weighted_away, bt_logodds_weighted
Training
- Trained
- 2026-07-27
- Train seasons
- 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025
- Held-out test
- 2026
- Test spread RMSE
- 12.00
- Test Brier
- 0.1885
Walk-forward (each season held out in turn)
| Season | Spread RMSE | Brier |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 11.64 | 0.1897 |
| 2023 | 11.63 | 0.1914 |
| 2024 | 11.68 | 0.1890 |
| 2025 | 11.84 | 0.1842 |
| 2026 | 12.01 | 0.1876 |