Accuracy all seasons, every FINAL game scored on leakage-free pre-game predictions
| Metric | Baseline Plus | Book Closing Line |
|---|---|---|
| Spread MAE (n=30,426) | 8.96 | 8.83 |
| Winner % | 71.7% | 72.8% |
| Total MAE (n=30,426) | 13.07 | 13.02 |
| Log loss | 0.5221 | 0.5251 |
| Brier | 0.1740 | 0.1771 |
Head-to-head on identical games: model spread MAE 8.96 vs book 8.78 over 30,264 games; taking the model against the closing spread hits 53.2% (52.4% is breakeven at −110). Full breakdowns on Compare Models. Not betting advice.
What it knows — the 41 inputs per game
Form & schedule (15)
home_win_pct_l5, home_avg_margin_l5, home_avg_total_l5, home_margin_stddev_l5, away_win_pct_l5, away_avg_margin_l5, away_avg_total_l5, away_margin_stddev_l5, home_games_played, away_games_played, home_days_rest, away_days_rest, season_week, is_neutral_site, is_conference_game
Ratings (14)
massey_beta_home, massey_beta_away, massey_beta_diff, massey_gamma_home, massey_gamma_away, massey_gamma_sum, bt_theta_home, bt_theta_away, bt_logodds, bt_theta_weighted_home, bt_theta_weighted_away, bt_logodds_weighted, home_rpi, away_rpi
Box-score profile (12)
home_pace, away_pace, home_off_eff, away_off_eff, home_def_eff, away_def_eff, home_efg_pct, away_efg_pct, home_opp_efg_pct, away_opp_efg_pct, home_tov_rate, away_tov_rate
Training
- Trained
- 2026-07-10
- Train seasons
- —
- Held-out test
- —
- Test spread RMSE
- 11.79
- Test Brier
- 0.1882
Walk-forward (each season held out in turn)
| Season | Spread RMSE | Brier |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 11.79 | 0.1986 |
| 2023 | 11.60 | 0.1954 |
| 2024 | 11.64 | 0.1903 |
| 2025 | 11.70 | 0.1857 |
| 2026 | 11.79 | 0.1877 |