Accuracy all seasons, every FINAL game scored on leakage-free pre-game predictions
| Metric | Baseline | Book Closing Line |
|---|---|---|
| Spread MAE (n=31,046) | 9.11 | 8.83 |
| Winner % | 71.3% | 72.8% |
| Total MAE (n=31,046) | 13.26 | 13.02 |
| Log loss | 0.5280 | 0.5251 |
| Brier | 0.1766 | 0.1771 |
Head-to-head on identical games: model spread MAE 9.11 vs book 8.79 over 30,884 games; taking the model against the closing spread hits 52.0% (52.4% is breakeven at −110). Full breakdowns on Compare Models. Not betting advice.
What it knows — the 27 inputs per game
Form & schedule (15)
home_win_pct_l5, home_avg_margin_l5, home_avg_total_l5, home_margin_stddev_l5, away_win_pct_l5, away_avg_margin_l5, away_avg_total_l5, away_margin_stddev_l5, home_games_played, away_games_played, home_days_rest, away_days_rest, season_week, is_neutral_site, is_conference_game
Ratings (12)
massey_beta_home, massey_beta_away, massey_beta_diff, massey_gamma_home, massey_gamma_away, massey_gamma_sum, bt_theta_home, bt_theta_away, bt_logodds, bt_theta_weighted_home, bt_theta_weighted_away, bt_logodds_weighted
Training
- Trained
- 2026-07-10
- Train seasons
- —
- Held-out test
- —
- Test spread RMSE
- 11.93
- Test Brier
- 0.1882
Walk-forward (each season held out in turn)
| Season | Spread RMSE | Brier |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 11.73 | 0.1950 |
| 2023 | 11.64 | 0.1947 |
| 2024 | 11.65 | 0.1895 |
| 2025 | 11.77 | 0.1858 |
| 2026 | 11.95 | 0.1875 |