Accuracy 2026 — every FINAL game scored on leakage-free pre-game predictions
| Metric | Model 4 | Book Closing Line |
|---|---|---|
| Spread MAE (n=5,293) | 9.18 | 8.92 |
| Winner % | 70.6% | 72.7% |
| Total MAE (n=5,293) | 13.95 | 13.37 |
| Log loss | 0.5543 | 0.5129 |
| Brier | 0.1883 | 0.1732 |
Head-to-head on identical games: model spread MAE 9.18 vs book 8.87 over 5,249 games; taking the model against the closing spread hits 50.2% (52.4% is breakeven at −110). Full breakdowns on Compare Models. Not betting advice.
What it knows — the 77 inputs per game
Adjusted efficiency (8)
home_adj_off, away_adj_off, home_adj_def, away_adj_def, adj_eff_matchup_home, adj_eff_matchup_away, adj_eff_diff, adj_eff_total
Preseason priors (6)
home_prev_beta, away_prev_beta, home_prev_theta, away_prev_theta, home_prev_available, away_prev_available
Form & schedule (21)
home_win_pct_l5, home_avg_margin_l5, home_avg_total_l5, home_margin_stddev_l5, away_win_pct_l5, away_avg_margin_l5, away_avg_total_l5, away_margin_stddev_l5, home_games_played, away_games_played, home_days_rest, away_days_rest, season_week, is_neutral_site, is_conference_game, home_win_pct_l10, away_win_pct_l10, home_avg_margin_l10, away_avg_margin_l10, home_massey_resid_l5, away_massey_resid_l5
Ratings (18)
massey_beta_home, massey_beta_away, massey_beta_diff, massey_gamma_home, massey_gamma_away, massey_gamma_sum, bt_theta_home, bt_theta_away, bt_logodds, bt_theta_weighted_home, bt_theta_weighted_away, bt_logodds_weighted, home_rpi, away_rpi, home_stddev_margin, away_stddev_margin, home_rpi_owp, away_rpi_owp
Box-score profile (24)
home_pace, away_pace, home_off_eff, away_off_eff, home_def_eff, away_def_eff, home_efg_pct, away_efg_pct, home_opp_efg_pct, away_opp_efg_pct, home_tov_rate, away_tov_rate, home_orb_pct, away_orb_pct, home_drb_pct, away_drb_pct, home_ft_rate, away_ft_rate, home_opp_ft_rate, away_opp_ft_rate, home_opp_tov_rate, away_opp_tov_rate, home_fg3_rate, away_fg3_rate
Training
- Trained
- 2026-08-04
- Train seasons
- 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025
- Held-out test
- 2026
- Test spread RMSE
- 11.66
- Test Brier
- 0.1883
Walk-forward (each season held out in turn)
| Season | Spread RMSE | Brier |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 11.71 | 0.1989 |
| 2023 | 11.44 | 0.1927 |
| 2024 | 11.49 | 0.1901 |
| 2025 | 11.61 | 0.1851 |
| 2026 | 11.64 | 0.1878 |