Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | BALL -175 NIU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +10 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -5.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -4.9 (+5.1) | 149.7 (+2.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -4.5 (+5.5) | 148.1 (+3.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -5.3 (+4.7) | 148.2 (+3.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -5.2 (+4.8) | 150.1 (+1.9) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BALL 79 – 43 NIU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | BALL 58 – 53 NIU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BALL 89 – 83 NIU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NIU 76 – 66 BALL |
| Feb 21, 2024 | BALL 70 – 63 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-7 | 5-9 |
| Away | 6-8 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 79.2 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#259) | -6.3 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#274) | -0.85 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#280) | -0.95 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#289) | 0.475 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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