Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | NIU +225 BALL -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +10 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -7.8 (+17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -7.4 (+17.4) | 145.1 (-3.1) | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -6.5 (+16.5) | 144.3 (-2.3) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -6.5 (+16.5) | 143.7 (-1.7) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -7.1 (+17.1) | 144.7 (-2.7) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BALL 79 – 43 NIU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | BALL 58 – 53 NIU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BALL 89 – 83 NIU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | BALL 70 – 63 NIU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BALL 81 – 71 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-10 | 8-7 |
| Away | 1-15 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -16.6 (#357) | -5.4 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.09 (#355) | -1.17 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.56 (#351) | -1.73 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.365 (#353) | 0.428 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.1% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 18.4% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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