Betting Lines
| Spread | NIU -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | NIU -111 BALL -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +7 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | NIU -0.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -0.7 (-6.3) | 142.8 (-9.8) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIU -1.1 (-8.1) | 144.0 (-11.0) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIU -0.9 (-7.9) | 144.1 (-11.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIU -0.7 (-7.7) | 146.1 (-13.1) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BALL 79 – 43 NIU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | BALL 58 – 53 NIU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BALL 89 – 83 NIU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NIU 76 – 66 BALL |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BALL 81 – 71 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-9 | 9-7 |
| Away | 5-11 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#302) | -5.3 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#264) | -1.04 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#267) | -1.29 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#257) | 0.437 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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