Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | BALL -450 NIU +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +6 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -12.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (+24.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -10.4 (-4.4) | 148.7 (+23.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -9.4 (-3.4) | 149.2 (+22.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -10.3 (-4.3) | 145.6 (+26.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -9.9 (-3.9) | 148.4 (+23.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BALL 79 – 43 NIU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | BALL 58 – 53 NIU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NIU 76 – 66 BALL |
| Feb 21, 2024 | BALL 70 – 63 NIU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BALL 81 – 71 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 2-16 |
| Home | 8-7 | 5-10 |
| Away | 4-9 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#261) | -15.1 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#270) | -2.97 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#288) | -3.34 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#286) | 0.366 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 17.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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