Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | BALL -265 NIU +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +5 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -4.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (-25.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -3.0 (+2.0) | 133.6 (-22.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -2.5 (+2.5) | 135.3 (-24.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -1.7 (+3.3) | 133.7 (-22.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -2.2 (+2.8) | 134.4 (-23.4) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BALL 79 – 43 NIU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BALL 89 – 83 NIU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NIU 76 – 66 BALL |
| Feb 21, 2024 | BALL 70 – 63 NIU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BALL 81 – 71 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 7-7 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W4 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#300) | -10.2 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#322) | -1.43 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.48 (#326) | -2.07 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#337) | 0.437 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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