Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | LR -205 USI +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +19 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | LR -5.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (+19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -4.7 (+14.3) | 139.2 (+19.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -5.2 (+13.8) | 139.3 (+19.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -4.8 (+14.2) | 136.0 (+23.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -5.0 (+14.0) | 137.2 (+21.8) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2025 | LR 77 – 62 USI |
| Feb 7, 2025 | LR 74 – 56 USI |
| Jan 12, 2025 | LR 78 – 58 USI |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LR 80 – 62 USI |
| Jan 19, 2024 | LR 77 – 75 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 4-16 |
| Home | 7-6 | 3-10 |
| Away | 5-13 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -10.0 (#310) | -12.5 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#311) | -2.76 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.05 (#311) | -3.31 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#294) | 0.373 (#358) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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