Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | USI +120 LR -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +15 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | USI -8.9 (-23.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USI -4.4 (-19.4) | 140.6 (-1.6) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USI -4.5 (-19.5) | 141.0 (-2.0) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USI -4.4 (-19.4) | 139.7 (-0.7) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USI -3.7 (-18.7) | 140.7 (-1.7) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | LR 89 – 70 USI |
| Feb 7, 2025 | LR 74 – 56 USI |
| Jan 12, 2025 | LR 78 – 58 USI |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LR 80 – 62 USI |
| Jan 19, 2024 | LR 77 – 75 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USI | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-23 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 9-11 |
| Home | 3-10 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -11.0 (#317) | -15.5 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.51 (#336) | -2.40 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.87 (#324) | -3.35 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.357 (#351) | 0.358 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USI | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 60.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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