I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
Ohio Valley Conference · Jack Stephens Center · February 17, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread LR -10.5 Home covered
O/U 149.5 Under
Money LR -600 / USI +500
Model Predictions
Spread Total LR win
Actual LR +18 142 Won
Massey LR -10.2 (+7.8)
Massey Totals 151.0 (-9.0)
Bradley-Terry 92%
Weighted B-T 94%
Efficiency Plus ML LR -8.5 (+9.5) 146.0 (-4.0) 80%
Baseline Tuned ML LR -9.1 (+8.9) 144.9 (-2.9) 83%
Baseline ML LR -9.4 (+8.6) 145.2 (-3.2) 82%
Baseline Plus ML LR -10.8 (+7.2) 145.2 (-3.2) 83%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 28, 2026 LR 8970 USI
Dec 19, 2025 LR 7762 USI
Feb 7, 2025 LR 7456 USI
Jan 12, 2025 LR 7858 USI
Jan 19, 2024 LR 7775 USI

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LR USI
Overall 21-13 8-24
Conference 14-4 5-13
Home 14-4 5-10
Away 6-6 3-13
Neutral 1-3 0-1
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L2 L4
Avg Pts For 77.3 66.9
Avg Pts Against 72.5 75.0
Massey -3.8 (#233) -10.5 (#327)
Bradley-Terry -0.63 (#234) -2.43 (#347)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.74 (#234) -2.87 (#342)
RPI 0.451 (#267) 0.403 (#331)
Shooting & Four Factors LR USI
FG% 46.0% 39.8%
3PT% 33.5% 31.9%
REB / G 36.5 35.7
OREB / G 11.5 9.9
AST / TO 1.16 0.77
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.4% 45.5%
TOV% 17.5% 20.4%
ORB% 32.2% 27.5%
FT Rate 24.7% 27.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.5% 49.3%
Opp TOV% 17.8% 16.4%
DRB% 68.8% 72.3%
Opp FT Rate 27.4% 35.2%

Game Analysis

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