Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | USI +155 LR -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +18 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | LR -3.3 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -3.2 (-14.8) | 132.4 (-2.4) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -3.8 (-14.2) | 132.0 (-2.0) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -3.6 (-14.4) | 130.4 (-0.4) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -3.0 (-15.0) | 131.3 (-1.3) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | LR 89 – 70 USI |
| Dec 19, 2025 | LR 77 – 62 USI |
| Jan 12, 2025 | LR 78 – 58 USI |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LR 80 – 62 USI |
| Jan 19, 2024 | LR 77 – 75 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USI | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-13 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#310) | -2.7 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#319) | -0.46 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.28 (#320) | -0.62 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#329) | 0.483 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USI | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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