Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | LR -250 USI +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +20 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | LR -7.1 (+12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -5.1 (+14.9) | 134.9 (+1.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -6.1 (+13.9) | 132.3 (+3.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -5.0 (+15.0) | 131.8 (+4.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -4.9 (+15.1) | 132.4 (+3.6) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | LR 89 – 70 USI |
| Dec 19, 2025 | LR 77 – 62 USI |
| Feb 7, 2025 | LR 74 – 56 USI |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LR 80 – 62 USI |
| Jan 19, 2024 | LR 77 – 75 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 5-15 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-7 |
| Away | 9-7 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#263) | -8.9 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#225) | -1.95 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#240) | -2.47 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#232) | 0.375 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 63.1% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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