Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | USI +150 LR -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +2 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | LR -1.4 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -3.3 (+1.3) | 149.2 (+2.8) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -2.9 (+0.9) | 147.3 (+4.7) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -2.4 (+0.4) | 148.4 (+3.6) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -3.5 (+1.5) | 151.0 (+1.0) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | LR 89 – 70 USI |
| Dec 19, 2025 | LR 77 – 62 USI |
| Feb 7, 2025 | LR 74 – 56 USI |
| Jan 12, 2025 | LR 78 – 58 USI |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LR 80 – 62 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USI | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 14-4 |
| Home | 5-10 | 14-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -10.6 (#323) | -5.4 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.54 (#342) | -1.23 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.15 (#342) | -1.19 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#335) | 0.400 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USI | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.8% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.6% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
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