Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | COPP +225 NORF -278 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +6 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | NORF -9.4 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -8.0 (+2.0) | 137.1 (+6.9) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -7.8 (+1.8) | 136.1 (+7.9) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -7.1 (+1.1) | 138.3 (+5.7) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -7.6 (+1.6) | 135.8 (+8.2) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | NORF 103 – 76 COPP |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NORF 79 – 63 COPP |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NORF 92 – 69 COPP |
| Mar 13, 2024 | NORF 75 – 51 COPP |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NORF 68 – 66 COPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COPP | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 8-6 |
| Home | 3-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-15 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.3 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 74.7 |
| Massey | -21.8 (#364) | -9.5 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.75 (#353) | -1.73 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.83 (#356) | -2.31 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#338) | 0.435 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COPP | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.3% | 31.5% |
Game Analysis
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