Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | COPP +650 NORF -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +2 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | NORF -10.4 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -11.1 (+9.1) | 132.1 (+1.9) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -9.4 (+7.4) | 130.0 (+4.0) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -11.2 (+9.2) | 131.1 (+2.9) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -10.3 (+8.3) | 131.0 (+3.0) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | NORF 75 – 69 COPP |
| Jan 24, 2026 | NORF 103 – 76 COPP |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NORF 79 – 63 COPP |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NORF 92 – 69 COPP |
| Mar 13, 2024 | NORF 75 – 51 COPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COPP | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-27 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 1-13 | 11-3 |
| Home | 2-8 | 15-0 |
| Away | 0-17 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L13 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.9 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -17.8 (#360) | -4.1 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.48 (#360) | -0.22 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.88 (#357) | -0.45 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.335 (#362) | 0.482 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COPP | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.5% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.51 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.9% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 33.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 60.7% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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