Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | USA -205 USM +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +13 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -6.0 (-19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -6.3 (-19.3) | 143.0 (-20.0) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -6.9 (-19.9) | 143.4 (-20.4) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -6.4 (-19.4) | 145.5 (-22.5) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -5.7 (-18.7) | 145.8 (-22.8) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | USA 84 – 78 USM |
| Feb 27, 2025 | USA 88 – 82 USM |
| Jan 16, 2025 | USA 75 – 62 USM |
| Feb 29, 2024 | USA 73 – 70 USM |
| Feb 23, 2024 | USA 83 – 64 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#194) | -4.6 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#125) | -0.45 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#139) | -0.74 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#119) | 0.491 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 31.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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