Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | USM -125 USA +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +6 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -1.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (+21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -0.6 (-6.6) | 137.2 (+24.8) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -0.4 (-6.4) | 139.2 (+22.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -0.1 (-5.9) | 138.1 (+23.9) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -0.0 (-6.0) | 137.7 (+24.3) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | USM 68 – 55 USA |
| Feb 27, 2025 | USA 88 – 82 USM |
| Jan 16, 2025 | USA 75 – 62 USM |
| Feb 29, 2024 | USA 73 – 70 USM |
| Feb 23, 2024 | USA 83 – 64 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#238) | -3.0 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#212) | 0.30 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#222) | 0.24 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#187) | 0.520 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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