Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | USM +240 USA -290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +6 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -7.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (+30.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -6.3 (+0.3) | 143.3 (+26.7) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -5.9 (-0.1) | 144.3 (+25.7) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -6.8 (+0.8) | 142.8 (+27.2) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -6.6 (+0.6) | 143.9 (+26.1) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | USM 68 – 55 USA |
| Feb 13, 2026 | USA 84 – 78 USM |
| Jan 16, 2025 | USA 75 – 62 USM |
| Feb 29, 2024 | USA 73 – 70 USM |
| Feb 23, 2024 | USA 83 – 64 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-6 | 13-4 |
| Away | 1-13 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 65.5 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#293) | 2.2 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#303) | 0.17 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#301) | 0.35 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#303) | 0.511 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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