Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | USA -150 USM +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +3 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | USA -2.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -2.1 (+0.9) | 144.5 (-1.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -1.4 (+1.6) | 145.1 (-2.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -2.0 (+1.0) | 146.9 (-3.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -2.1 (+0.9) | 145.8 (-2.8) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | USM 68 – 55 USA |
| Feb 13, 2026 | USA 84 – 78 USM |
| Feb 27, 2025 | USA 88 – 82 USM |
| Jan 16, 2025 | USA 75 – 62 USM |
| Feb 23, 2024 | USA 83 – 64 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#244) | -3.5 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#228) | -0.19 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#221) | -0.47 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#238) | 0.496 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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