Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | USA -1100 USM +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +13 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | USA -15.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -12.2 (+0.8) | 136.6 (+0.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -10.9 (+2.1) | 138.9 (-1.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -13.7 (-0.7) | 137.3 (-0.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -13.0 (-0.0) | 138.4 (-1.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | USM 68 – 55 USA |
| Feb 13, 2026 | USA 84 – 78 USM |
| Feb 27, 2025 | USA 88 – 82 USM |
| Feb 29, 2024 | USA 73 – 70 USM |
| Feb 23, 2024 | USA 83 – 64 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-6 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#103) | -7.5 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#148) | -1.09 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#121) | -1.56 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#165) | 0.423 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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