Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | USM -188 USA +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +19 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -4.8 (-23.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -4.2 (-23.2) | 141.0 (+6.0) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -3.6 (-22.6) | 142.9 (+4.1) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -4.1 (-23.1) | 142.6 (+4.4) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USM -3.7 (-22.7) | 140.3 (+6.7) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | USM 68 – 55 USA |
| Feb 13, 2026 | USA 84 – 78 USM |
| Feb 27, 2025 | USA 88 – 82 USM |
| Jan 16, 2025 | USA 75 – 62 USM |
| Feb 29, 2024 | USA 73 – 70 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 75.9 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#225) | -4.7 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#187) | -0.63 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#213) | -0.72 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#178) | 0.463 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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