Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | MER -125 ETSU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +6 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | MER -0.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -0.2 (+6.2) | 146.5 (+11.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -0.8 (+5.2) | 148.2 (+9.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -0.5 (+5.5) | 149.5 (+8.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -0.7 (+5.3) | 149.3 (+8.7) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | ETSU 77 – 71 MER |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ETSU 59 – 58 MER |
| Jan 9, 2025 | ETSU 70 – 68 MER |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ETSU 54 – 49 MER |
| Jan 4, 2024 | ETSU 80 – 69 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-11 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#175) | 2.2 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#193) | 0.10 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#193) | 0.10 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#120) | 0.531 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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