Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU -425 MER +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +1 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -10.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (-30.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -10.6 (-9.6) | 144.0 (-27.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -9.4 (-8.4) | 143.7 (-26.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -9.7 (-8.7) | 141.4 (-24.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -9.8 (-8.8) | 142.0 (-25.0) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MER 82 – 76 ETSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | ETSU 77 – 71 MER |
| Jan 9, 2025 | ETSU 70 – 68 MER |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ETSU 54 – 49 MER |
| Jan 4, 2024 | ETSU 80 – 69 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#136) | -6.2 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#169) | -1.00 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#164) | -1.52 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#178) | 0.447 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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