Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | MER -125 ETSU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +5 | 103 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -3.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (-31.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -1.6 (-6.6) | 137.0 (-34.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -1.1 (-6.1) | 133.9 (-30.9) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -1.7 (-6.7) | 135.8 (-32.8) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -1.8 (-6.8) | 133.9 (-30.9) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MER 82 – 76 ETSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | ETSU 77 – 71 MER |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ETSU 59 – 58 MER |
| Jan 9, 2025 | ETSU 70 – 68 MER |
| Jan 4, 2024 | ETSU 80 – 69 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#235) | -3.1 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#242) | -0.34 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#257) | -0.46 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#220) | 0.491 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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