Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | MER +115 ETSU -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +2 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -1.6 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.1 (-20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -1.8 (-0.2) | 149.4 (-11.4) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -0.2 (-1.8) | 151.5 (-13.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -1.1 (-0.9) | 151.8 (-13.8) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -1.0 (-1.0) | 150.3 (-12.3) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MER 82 – 76 ETSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | ETSU 77 – 71 MER |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ETSU 59 – 58 MER |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ETSU 54 – 49 MER |
| Jan 4, 2024 | ETSU 80 – 69 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#236) | 1.6 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#183) | -0.64 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#205) | -0.31 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#194) | 0.448 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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