Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU -305 MER +245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +6 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -7.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -5.9 (+0.1) | 145.5 (+2.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -5.2 (+0.8) | 143.9 (+4.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -5.1 (+0.9) | 144.1 (+3.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -5.7 (+0.3) | 145.6 (+2.4) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MER 82 – 76 ETSU |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ETSU 59 – 58 MER |
| Jan 9, 2025 | ETSU 70 – 68 MER |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ETSU 54 – 49 MER |
| Jan 4, 2024 | ETSU 80 – 69 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 14-1 |
| Away | 8-6 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 77.8 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#109) | 1.2 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#219) | 0.32 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#193) | 0.33 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#220) | 0.532 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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