Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU -250 MER +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +11 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -8.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (+15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -5.5 (+5.5) | 135.7 (+13.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -5.4 (+5.6) | 134.6 (+14.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -5.6 (+5.4) | 134.9 (+14.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -5.2 (+5.8) | 136.0 (+13.0) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MER 82 – 76 ETSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | ETSU 77 – 71 MER |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ETSU 59 – 58 MER |
| Jan 9, 2025 | ETSU 70 – 68 MER |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ETSU 54 – 49 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#177) | -4.6 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#122) | -0.24 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#129) | -0.88 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#107) | 0.474 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
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