Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -130 RAD +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +16 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -1.4 (+14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -0.1 (+15.9) | 156.7 (+7.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -1.0 (+15.0) | 154.0 (+10.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -0.5 (+15.5) | 152.4 (+11.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -0.1 (+16.1) | 154.8 (+9.2) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | RAD 85 – 83 LONG |
| Feb 8, 2025 | RAD 71 – 69 LONG |
| Jan 23, 2025 | LONG 77 – 74 RAD |
| Feb 24, 2024 | RAD 88 – 82 LONG |
| Jan 12, 2024 | RAD 69 – 58 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 9-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 80.8 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#264) | -4.8 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#289) | -1.03 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#279) | -1.28 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#308) | 0.454 (#268) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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