Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | LONG -155 RAD +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +2 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | LONG -4.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -2.9 (-4.9) | 145.2 (-5.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -3.2 (-5.2) | 143.0 (-3.0) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -2.9 (-4.9) | 144.3 (-4.3) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -2.7 (-4.7) | 145.2 (-5.2) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | LONG 90 – 74 RAD |
| Jan 17, 2026 | RAD 85 – 83 LONG |
| Jan 23, 2025 | LONG 77 – 74 RAD |
| Feb 24, 2024 | RAD 88 – 82 LONG |
| Jan 12, 2024 | RAD 69 – 58 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 9-7 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#179) | -1.9 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#157) | 0.23 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#155) | 0.38 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#154) | 0.520 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 33.4% | 31.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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