Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | RAD -180 LONG +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +3 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | RAD -3.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -2.6 (-5.6) | 140.1 (+10.9) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -2.8 (-5.8) | 141.6 (+9.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -2.8 (-5.8) | 143.6 (+7.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -2.8 (-5.8) | 141.3 (+9.7) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | LONG 90 – 74 RAD |
| Jan 17, 2026 | RAD 85 – 83 LONG |
| Feb 8, 2025 | RAD 71 – 69 LONG |
| Feb 24, 2024 | RAD 88 – 82 LONG |
| Jan 12, 2024 | RAD 69 – 58 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-3 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#197) | -1.9 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#117) | 0.14 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#118) | 0.01 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#115) | 0.505 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 33.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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