Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | LONG -225 RAD +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +11 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | LONG -9.1 (-20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -6.0 (-17.0) | 136.7 (-9.7) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -6.4 (-17.4) | 135.5 (-8.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -6.0 (-17.0) | 134.0 (-7.0) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -6.0 (-17.0) | 134.9 (-7.9) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | LONG 90 – 74 RAD |
| Jan 17, 2026 | RAD 85 – 83 LONG |
| Feb 8, 2025 | RAD 71 – 69 LONG |
| Jan 23, 2025 | LONG 77 – 74 RAD |
| Feb 24, 2024 | RAD 88 – 82 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 5-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#115) | -1.5 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#119) | 0.52 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#139) | 0.67 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#142) | 0.526 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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