Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | RAD N/A LONG +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +2 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | RAD -4.3 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -3.4 (-1.4) | 151.5 (+16.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -1.8 (+0.2) | 152.9 (+15.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -2.3 (-0.3) | 153.6 (+14.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -1.8 (+0.2) | 154.3 (+13.7) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | LONG 90 – 74 RAD |
| Feb 8, 2025 | RAD 71 – 69 LONG |
| Jan 23, 2025 | LONG 77 – 74 RAD |
| Feb 24, 2024 | RAD 88 – 82 LONG |
| Jan 12, 2024 | RAD 69 – 58 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 8-8 |
| Home | 12-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.8 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#275) | -8.1 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#300) | -1.38 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.09 (#302) | -1.64 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#313) | 0.423 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 33.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.8% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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