Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | RAD +100 LONG +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +6 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | RAD -0.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+30.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -0.4 (+6.4) | 141.9 (+28.1) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -1.7 (+4.3) | 142.3 (+27.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -0.8 (+5.2) | 144.1 (+25.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -0.9 (+5.1) | 144.9 (+25.1) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | LONG 90 – 74 RAD |
| Jan 17, 2026 | RAD 85 – 83 LONG |
| Feb 8, 2025 | RAD 71 – 69 LONG |
| Jan 23, 2025 | LONG 77 – 74 RAD |
| Jan 12, 2024 | RAD 69 – 58 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 6-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-12 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#225) | -0.6 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#218) | -0.44 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#214) | -0.57 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#214) | 0.483 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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