Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | MORG +275 HOW -345 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +25 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | HOW -10.4 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -9.2 (-15.8) | 149.0 (-6.0) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -8.0 (-17.0) | 144.6 (-1.6) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -8.6 (-16.4) | 149.6 (-6.6) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -8.7 (-16.3) | 149.4 (-6.4) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | MORG 78 – 77 HOW |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MORG 91 – 90 HOW |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HOW 87 – 81 MORG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HOW 100 – 95 MORG |
| Mar 14, 2024 | HOW 78 – 65 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 11-3 |
| Home | 9-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -15.9 (#351) | -2.5 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#334) | -0.93 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.04 (#346) | -1.16 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#328) | 0.477 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 31.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.4% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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