Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | HOW -425 MORG +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +5 | 195 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -12.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.9 (+24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -9.5 (-4.5) | 160.6 (+34.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -10.2 (-5.2) | 166.5 (+28.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -9.9 (-4.9) | 164.2 (+30.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -9.0 (-4.0) | 162.4 (+32.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | HOW 84 – 59 MORG |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MORG 78 – 77 HOW |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MORG 91 – 90 HOW |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HOW 87 – 81 MORG |
| Mar 14, 2024 | HOW 78 – 65 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 7-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-11 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 82.8 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#282) | -14.8 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#279) | -2.62 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#280) | -3.20 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#254) | 0.346 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.