Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | HOW -250 MORG +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +13 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -6.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -5.9 (+7.1) | 150.0 (-7.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -5.0 (+8.0) | 147.9 (-4.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -5.0 (+8.0) | 149.9 (-6.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -5.2 (+7.8) | 150.0 (-7.0) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | HOW 84 – 59 MORG |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MORG 78 – 77 HOW |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MORG 91 – 90 HOW |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HOW 87 – 81 MORG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HOW 100 – 95 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 7-7 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 80.0 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#280) | -13.0 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#284) | -1.87 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#281) | -2.18 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#267) | 0.432 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 62.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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