Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | HOW -1450 MORG +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +1 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | HOW -16.4 (-17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -12.5 (-13.5) | 140.1 (+14.9) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -12.2 (-13.2) | 140.1 (+14.9) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -12.9 (-13.9) | 140.3 (+14.7) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -12.3 (-13.3) | 140.4 (+14.6) | 88% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | HOW 84 – 59 MORG |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MORG 91 – 90 HOW |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HOW 87 – 81 MORG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HOW 100 – 95 MORG |
| Mar 14, 2024 | HOW 78 – 65 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 10-4 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 80.1 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#257) | -19.2 (#361) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#241) | -3.06 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#254) | -4.15 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#254) | 0.346 (#363) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 40.5% |
Game Analysis
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