Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | HOW -165 MORG +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +1 | 181 | Lost |
| Massey | HOW -3.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.6 (+15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -2.3 (-3.3) | 153.8 (+27.2) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -2.3 (-3.3) | 153.4 (+27.6) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -2.4 (-3.4) | 154.3 (+26.7) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -3.0 (-4.0) | 153.4 (+27.6) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | HOW 84 – 59 MORG |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MORG 78 – 77 HOW |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HOW 87 – 81 MORG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HOW 100 – 95 MORG |
| Mar 14, 2024 | HOW 78 – 65 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 7-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-11 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 82.8 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#306) | -12.3 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#309) | -1.99 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.08 (#314) | -2.51 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#278) | 0.406 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 62.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.1% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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