Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Over |
| Money | MORG -105 HOW -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +6 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | HOW -0.7 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -0.1 (-6.1) | 156.8 (+11.2) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -1.1 (-4.9) | 160.7 (+7.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -0.6 (-5.4) | 161.6 (+6.4) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -0.6 (-5.4) | 158.9 (+9.1) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | HOW 84 – 59 MORG |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MORG 78 – 77 HOW |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MORG 91 – 90 HOW |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HOW 100 – 95 MORG |
| Mar 14, 2024 | HOW 78 – 65 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 7-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 2-13 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.8 | 80.7 |
| Massey | -12.1 (#337) | -8.3 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#331) | -1.36 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.44 (#327) | -1.91 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#344) | 0.449 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 63.8% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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