Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -8000 COLO +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +40 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -16.3 (+23.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -15.0 (+25.0) | 137.9 (+26.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -12.4 (+27.6) | 137.9 (+26.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -13.0 (+27.0) | 139.6 (+24.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -13.9 (+26.1) | 138.9 (+25.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2025 | HOU 77 – 68 COLO |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HOU 69 – 59 COLO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-1 | 13-5 |
| Away | 6-3 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 80.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 21.8 (#9) | 8.4 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.77 (#8) | 1.58 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.77 (#9) | 2.19 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#12) | 0.540 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.79 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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