Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | COLO +1200 HOU -3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +10 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -17.2 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -13.0 (+3.0) | 130.5 (-2.5) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -13.1 (+3.1) | 132.2 (-4.2) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -13.9 (+3.9) | 132.9 (-4.9) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -13.7 (+3.7) | 132.3 (-4.3) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | HOU 102 – 62 COLO |
| Mar 13, 2025 | HOU 77 – 68 COLO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-21 | 35-5 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 19-1 |
| Home | 11-7 | 16-1 |
| Away | 0-10 | 10-0 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 9-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 58.6 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#103) | 25.0 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#141) | 3.25 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#137) | 4.45 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#218) | 0.640 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 38.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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