Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | PENN -118 HARV -102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +3 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | PENN -2.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -1.5 (+1.5) | 132.4 (-7.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -1.2 (+1.8) | 131.5 (-6.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -2.4 (+0.6) | 132.6 (-7.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -1.9 (+1.1) | 133.6 (-8.6) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | PENN 62 – 60 HARV |
| Jan 19, 2026 | HARV 64 – 63 PENN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HARV 79 – 78 PENN |
| Jan 20, 2025 | PENN 82 – 67 HARV |
| Feb 25, 2024 | HARV 74 – 70 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 17-12 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 10-4 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#171) | 0.3 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#161) | -0.14 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#157) | -0.26 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#130) | 0.500 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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