Betting Lines
| Spread | HARV -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | HARV -340 PENN +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HARV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +15 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | HARV -9.6 (-24.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HARV -6.2 (-21.2) | 139.3 (+9.7) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HARV -7.3 (-22.3) | 137.1 (+11.9) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HARV -7.2 (-22.2) | 137.2 (+11.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HARV -7.3 (-22.3) | 137.2 (+11.8) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | PENN 62 – 60 HARV |
| Feb 28, 2026 | PENN 64 – 61 HARV |
| Jan 19, 2026 | HARV 64 – 63 PENN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HARV 79 – 78 PENN |
| Feb 25, 2024 | HARV 74 – 70 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HARV | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-15 | 8-19 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 4-10 |
| Home | 7-5 | 5-8 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#244) | -10.7 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#241) | -1.97 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#237) | -2.34 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#230) | 0.409 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HARV | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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