Betting Lines
| Spread | HARV -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | HARV -163 PENN +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HARV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HARV +4 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | HARV -3.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HARV -3.4 (+0.6) | 142.3 (+1.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HARV -2.0 (+2.0) | 142.1 (+1.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HARV -3.5 (+0.5) | 142.4 (+1.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HARV -3.0 (+1.0) | 141.8 (+2.2) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | PENN 62 – 60 HARV |
| Feb 28, 2026 | PENN 64 – 61 HARV |
| Jan 19, 2026 | HARV 64 – 63 PENN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HARV 79 – 78 PENN |
| Jan 20, 2025 | PENN 82 – 67 HARV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HARV | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-13 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 3-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#205) | -2.1 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#144) | -0.91 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#147) | -0.87 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#164) | 0.472 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HARV | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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