Betting Lines
| Spread | HARV -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | HARV -175 PENN +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HARV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +2 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | HARV -0.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -0.2 (-1.8) | 131.3 (-9.3) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HARV -0.2 (-2.2) | 131.9 (-9.9) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -0.6 (-1.4) | 132.1 (-10.1) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -0.3 (-1.7) | 132.4 (-10.4) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PENN 64 – 61 HARV |
| Jan 19, 2026 | HARV 64 – 63 PENN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HARV 79 – 78 PENN |
| Jan 20, 2025 | PENN 82 – 67 HARV |
| Feb 25, 2024 | HARV 74 – 70 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HARV | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-12 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| Home | 8-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 9-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#160) | 0.4 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#170) | 0.20 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#177) | 0.34 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#162) | 0.535 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HARV | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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